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Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.